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Forget the Celtic Tiger. Ireland is undergoing something far more significant, the most powerful transformation in two hundred years. We are seeing sustained population growth for the first time since the Famine and now only the government stands between Ireland and a future in which its population could grow to 8 million by 2050.
As migrants from Eastern Europe and the returning Irish diaspora build a new Ireland, The Best is Yet to Come asks whether the government is doing its part to build the future. Are we headed for a brave new world or a nightmare? Will Ireland lose its unique cultural identity as the number of migrant citizens rises to one-fifth of the population, and will the prospect of a united Ireland energise or destabilise the nation? Hang onto your hats while Marc Coleman brings you on a journey back to the future. Forget the Celtic Tiger; you ain't seen nothing yet.
Marc Coleman is Economics Editor of Newstalk and a columnist with the Sunday Independent. A former economist with the European Central Bank (ECB) and former Economics Editor of the Irish Times, he holds an MBA from the Smurfit Graduate School of Business UCD, where he also currently lectures.
The Best is Yet to Come: Ireland's Journey Back to the Future
Chapter 1 Stunted Nation Forget the Celtic Tiger. Ireland is still only half the nation that it should be, in spite of fifteen years of rapid growth. Ireland is unique amongst all other western European countries in being the only one having a substantially lower population now than it had in 1841. Far from being over, recent growth could be just the beginning of a recovery from a stunted past that has decades to run.
Chapter 2 Back to the Future The demographic time machine has taken us back to 1861, the last time the twenty-six counties had more than 4.2 million people. But we are still 2 million below 1841 levels. We are at least headed for the 6.5 million people we had then. But could global migration push that number even higher? In global terms, a population of 8 million by 2050 would still leave us as poorly populated.
Chapter 3 The Density Dividend
How can Ireland grow its population
without more congestion? Sprawling suburbs, one-off housing and small town sizes mean we are missing out on the magic ingredient that could take us higher than before: the density dividend. As well as social benefits, discussed later, a more clustered and densely populated population would create the productive value-added economic activity that long-term prosperity is built on.
Chapter 4 Bribes for Tribes Whether it's spatial strategy or transport, transforming a nation in this way needs strong leadership. But ever since Brian Boru, Ireland has suffered from a self-destructive tribalism. Whether it's decentralization or benchmarking, local interests have always managed to get the upper hand over the national interest. Is that now beginning to change?
Chapter 5 Rip Off Republic It's not just burning a hole in your pocket; it's also bringing down Ireland's international competitiveness, killing jobs and threatening an otherwise golden future. Consumers are starting to fight back. But is government listening?
Chapter 6 Red Bricks. Black Potatoes In the 1840 a savage famine happened because one-third of the population was dependent on the potato. Now the Irish economy is overdosing on property. History doesn't repeat itself. But it sometimes rhymes.
Chapter 7 Shannon or Shenzen? 160 years after the famine, the soup kitchen mentality is alive and well, despite a modern economy. How can we wean Ireland's western regions away from permanent dependence and make them viable and prosperous?
Chapter 8 The Only Way is Up 5,000 years after the first city was invented, the Irish just don't seem to get the idea. Behind one of the lowest population densities in Europe are cities that look more like groups of villages. If 'the only way is up' is to remain true for Ireland's economy, then it has to become true for its cities.
Chapter 9 The National Development Plan Even if spatial planning were to work, a country's economy can't function unless its population are connected by good transport. After decades of trying, can our government finally get the trains moving on time?
Chapter 10 Farewell to Bull McCabe An understandable reaction to famine in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, Ireland's obsession with land and property could now prove its undoing. One-off housing and sprawling suburbs could contribute to looming disaster unless we shout stop by changing the way we use our most precious resource: land.
Chapter 11 New Broom. New Boom Ireland is a land of a hundred governments. As national governments, regional authorities, local authorities and state bodies vie for control, who's really in charge of the nation? A very small number of people, by the looks of things. We need electoral and political reform to streamline government and give power back to the people.
Chapter 12 A Nation Once Again The Irish government contributes substantial funds towards investment in Northern Ireland. Aer Lingus moves its Heathrow slot from Shannon to Belfast. Is this the start of a beautiful relationship? By 2050 the population of the entire island is likely to surpass 8 million - possibly more - for the first time since 1841. What are the chances for Irish unity also happening by then?
Chapter 13 Ireland or Anglo-Hibernia? How can we ask migrant workers to integrate into our culture when we are destroying it? Ireland's success to date and future success is coming at the price of its identity. Will mass migration and continued growth in the twentieth century leave Ireland stripped of its uniqueness in all but name, or can true Irishness make a cultural comeback?
Chapter 14 Reclaiming Republicanism 2016 will be the one hundredth anniversary of the 1916 rising. But we still don't respect the 1916 Proclamation's wish to 'cherish all the nation of the children equally'. Transport and planning are the road blocks to prosperity. But unequal access to opportunity - and the begrudgery and class system it gives rise to - is the biggest roadblock to a cohesive society.
Annex Chapter 15 Scotland the Brave On the three hundredth anniversary of its union with England and Wales, Scotland's population is declining and its economy is underperforming the rest of Europe. Now on the verge of debating its own independence, can Scotland emulate Ireland's success by regaining independence?
© Marc Coleman, 4 September 2007.
As migrants from Eastern Europe and the returning Irish diaspora build a new Ireland, The Best is Yet to Come asks whether the government is doing its part to build the future. Are we headed for a brave new world or a nightmare? Will Ireland lose its unique cultural identity as the number of migrant citizens rises to one-fifth of the population, and will the prospect of a united Ireland energise or destabilise the nation? Hang onto your hats while Marc Coleman brings you on a journey back to the future. Forget the Celtic Tiger; you ain't seen nothing yet.
Marc Coleman is Economics Editor of Newstalk and a columnist with the Sunday Independent. A former economist with the European Central Bank (ECB) and former Economics Editor of the Irish Times, he holds an MBA from the Smurfit Graduate School of Business UCD, where he also currently lectures.
The Best is Yet to Come: Ireland's Journey Back to the Future
Chapter 1 Stunted Nation Forget the Celtic Tiger. Ireland is still only half the nation that it should be, in spite of fifteen years of rapid growth. Ireland is unique amongst all other western European countries in being the only one having a substantially lower population now than it had in 1841. Far from being over, recent growth could be just the beginning of a recovery from a stunted past that has decades to run.
Chapter 2 Back to the Future The demographic time machine has taken us back to 1861, the last time the twenty-six counties had more than 4.2 million people. But we are still 2 million below 1841 levels. We are at least headed for the 6.5 million people we had then. But could global migration push that number even higher? In global terms, a population of 8 million by 2050 would still leave us as poorly populated.
Chapter 3 The Density Dividend
How can Ireland grow its population
without more congestion? Sprawling suburbs, one-off housing and small town sizes mean we are missing out on the magic ingredient that could take us higher than before: the density dividend. As well as social benefits, discussed later, a more clustered and densely populated population would create the productive value-added economic activity that long-term prosperity is built on.
Chapter 4 Bribes for Tribes Whether it's spatial strategy or transport, transforming a nation in this way needs strong leadership. But ever since Brian Boru, Ireland has suffered from a self-destructive tribalism. Whether it's decentralization or benchmarking, local interests have always managed to get the upper hand over the national interest. Is that now beginning to change?
Chapter 5 Rip Off Republic It's not just burning a hole in your pocket; it's also bringing down Ireland's international competitiveness, killing jobs and threatening an otherwise golden future. Consumers are starting to fight back. But is government listening?
Chapter 6 Red Bricks. Black Potatoes In the 1840 a savage famine happened because one-third of the population was dependent on the potato. Now the Irish economy is overdosing on property. History doesn't repeat itself. But it sometimes rhymes.
Chapter 7 Shannon or Shenzen? 160 years after the famine, the soup kitchen mentality is alive and well, despite a modern economy. How can we wean Ireland's western regions away from permanent dependence and make them viable and prosperous?
Chapter 8 The Only Way is Up 5,000 years after the first city was invented, the Irish just don't seem to get the idea. Behind one of the lowest population densities in Europe are cities that look more like groups of villages. If 'the only way is up' is to remain true for Ireland's economy, then it has to become true for its cities.
Chapter 9 The National Development Plan Even if spatial planning were to work, a country's economy can't function unless its population are connected by good transport. After decades of trying, can our government finally get the trains moving on time?
Chapter 10 Farewell to Bull McCabe An understandable reaction to famine in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, Ireland's obsession with land and property could now prove its undoing. One-off housing and sprawling suburbs could contribute to looming disaster unless we shout stop by changing the way we use our most precious resource: land.
Chapter 11 New Broom. New Boom Ireland is a land of a hundred governments. As national governments, regional authorities, local authorities and state bodies vie for control, who's really in charge of the nation? A very small number of people, by the looks of things. We need electoral and political reform to streamline government and give power back to the people.
Chapter 12 A Nation Once Again The Irish government contributes substantial funds towards investment in Northern Ireland. Aer Lingus moves its Heathrow slot from Shannon to Belfast. Is this the start of a beautiful relationship? By 2050 the population of the entire island is likely to surpass 8 million - possibly more - for the first time since 1841. What are the chances for Irish unity also happening by then?
Chapter 13 Ireland or Anglo-Hibernia? How can we ask migrant workers to integrate into our culture when we are destroying it? Ireland's success to date and future success is coming at the price of its identity. Will mass migration and continued growth in the twentieth century leave Ireland stripped of its uniqueness in all but name, or can true Irishness make a cultural comeback?
Chapter 14 Reclaiming Republicanism 2016 will be the one hundredth anniversary of the 1916 rising. But we still don't respect the 1916 Proclamation's wish to 'cherish all the nation of the children equally'. Transport and planning are the road blocks to prosperity. But unequal access to opportunity - and the begrudgery and class system it gives rise to - is the biggest roadblock to a cohesive society.
Annex Chapter 15 Scotland the Brave On the three hundredth anniversary of its union with England and Wales, Scotland's population is declining and its economy is underperforming the rest of Europe. Now on the verge of debating its own independence, can Scotland emulate Ireland's success by regaining independence?
© Marc Coleman, 4 September 2007.
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